意大利面模型如何预测飓风的道路？

为了帮助预测工作，气象学家利用称为意大利面模型的可视化（有时也称为意大利面条图）。对于一个外行人来说，意大利面模型看起来像是一堆意大利面条链随机扔在墙上。但是，实际上，意大利面条图是将各种预测模型的信息结合到一个地图上的一种方法，以列出飓风潜在的轨道图片。

“每个用于预测飓风路径的模型，并且在许多情况下强度都可以在地图上绘制该路径，”Daniel J. Leathersexplained when we spoke to him in 2019. He's a professor and director of theMeteorology and Climatology programat the University of Delaware, who also serves asDelaware State Climatologistand as a co-director of theDelaware Environmental Observing System. "All a spaghetti plot does is take the results from all of these models and plot all of them on the same map."

To understand why spaghetti plots are important, you have to understand that there are awhole bunch of different modeling methodsthat are used to track hurricanes, and like presidential election polls, they don't all produce the same results.

The object of creating such a map, according to Leathers, is to see the extent to which all the different models agree. "When the paths are very similar to one another, this means that all the models are agreeing (to a large extent) about the future path of the storm," he says. In contrast, if the individual plots are all over the place, "then that says that there is great uncertainty in the models about where the storm will move in the future. Spaghetti plots are a way of seeing all of the model results at one time, and not relying on just one model for a forecast. They are very helpful in conveying the certainty, or uncertainty, of a forecast."

The lines on the chart indicate the different paths projected by the various models, which have varying degrees of reliability. "The models include dynamical models (using the physics of the atmosphere), statistical models and in some cases analogue models to predict the coming movement of an individual storm," Leathers explains. "These models come from meteorological organizations from all across the globe — places like theNational Weather Service, theBritish Met Office, universities and so on. Some models are certainly thought to be better than others. They are very different in how they make predictions, and in what they are best at."

What, if any, useful information can non-meteorologists get from looking at spaghetti plots? "The most useful information is the certainty of the forecast," Leathers explains. "Again, if all the paths are very similar, the forecast certainty is high. If the paths are very different, the certainty is low. If there is a great spread in the forecast tracks then that shows that the models are not doing a great job as a suite in figuring out where this particular storm is likely to move in the future."

但是，如果您要尝试理解意大利面条，那么了解它们的局限性很重要。Lainter说：“非客流学家确实需要谨慎地解释这些地块，因为某些模型在风暴生命周期中的不同时间通常比其他模型更好。”“这可能是从意大利面图中获得最大收益的重要信息。”

Spaghetti models have changed subtly over the years, according to Leathers. The approach has evolved as more hurricane models are run in real-time, and as technology has allowed us to put these models together into a spaghetti plot faster, he says. He says he doesn't expect anything to replace them in the foreseeable future.

皮革说：“随着技术的更快传输和可视化技术的发展，我相信会有更多的变化。”他还预测，在未来几年中，模型的数量及其成熟程度可能会继续增长。

Originally Published: Jun 18, 2019